Breakup of US Reminds Us of 1970s Texas Secession

The WSJ article about Russian professor Igor Panarin who is predicting the breakup of the United States in 2010 reminds us of the discussion in the 1970s about Texas' ability to secede from the union.

Prof. Panarin, a former KGB analyst, calls for the U.S. breakup because he believes mass immigration, the current economic decline and moral degradation will set off a civil war next fall. With that war will come a collapse of the U.S. dollar. These conditions will cause wealthy states to withhold money from the federal government causing it to fail. With the U.S. union breaking down, various groups of states will merge with or be assimilated by foreign entities that have a natural affinity with the region according to Prof. Panarin's map of the former United States.

He says Alaska will return to Russia (Sarah Pallin will be unhappy with that scenario). Hawaii will go to either Japan or China. The continental states will break into four regions - Atlantic America, The Central North American Republic, The California Republic and The Texas Republic. Under Prof. Panarin's view, the Atlantic group might join the European Union, whilc the Central region becomes a part of Canada or under its influence. (It wasn't too long ago that Canada feared its western states would separate from the rest of the country and seek admission to the United States as our 51st state.) The professor believes the California group of states will affiliate with China or fall under its influence while Texas will wind up a part of or aligned with Mexico, bring the state full circle in its history.

In the 1970s, when U.S. energy policy toward natural gas pricing and the government's oil windfall profits tax angered Texans and its energy execs, Texas Monthly magazine did a full issue examining the secession of Texas from the union and how it would fare in the world. A key point in the article was that because Texas had joined the union, exactly 163 years ago today, via treaty, it was possible for the treaty to be undone allowing the state out of the union. At that time, Texas was about the fifth largest oil producer behind Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Kuwait and the remaining United States. The Texas economy would have ranked as one of the world's largest, also.

The point of the Texas Monthly article was to have some fun with the possibility of Texas getting free from the oppressive energy regulation of the federal government. It never happened. I suspect Prof. Panarin's dreams of a U.S. breakup will provide fond memories for audiences in the future, also.